JMIR Public Health and Surveillance

This paper analyses patterns and changes in the expectation of life at birth in India and decomposes the increase in the expectation of life at birth between 1998-2002 and 2013-2017. The analysis reveals considerable volatility in the increase in the expectation of life at birth in the country and in its different population groups and states. In recent years, there is considerable deceleration in the increase in the expectation of life at birth in the country because of the deceleration in the ...

The study of transmission dynamics of COVID-19, have depicted the rate, patterns and predictions of the pandemic cases. In order to combat the disease transmission in India, the Government had declared lockdown on the 25th of March. Even after a strict lockdown nationwide, the cases are increasing and have crossed 4.5 lakh positive cases. A positive point to be noted amongst all that the recovered cases are slowly exceeding the active cases. The survival of the patients, taking death as the even...

The present paper analyses the contribution of different population sub-groups classified by the wealth index quantiles groups to the change in the risk of death in the first five years of life in India during 2005-06 through 2019-21. The analysis reveals that the poorest and the poorer population sub-groups have primarily contributed to the decrease in the risk of death in the first five years of life in India whereas the contribution of the contribution of the richest population sub-group has ...

This paper analyses the trend in daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India using joinpoint regression analysis. The analysis reveals that there has been little impact of the nation-wide lockdown and subsequent extension on the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that relaxations under the third and the fourth phase of the lockdown have resulted in a spike in the reported confirmed cases. The analysis also suggests that if the c...

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a highly infectious disease, was first detected in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The disease has spread to 212 countries and territories around the world and infected (confirmed) more than three million people. In India, the disease was first detected on 30 January 2020 in Kerala in a student who returned from Wuhan. The total (cumulative) number of confirmed infected people is more than 37000 till now across India (3 May 2020). Most of the research and new...

The novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has created a medical emergency worldwide. It has spread rapidly to multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. In India, it is already reported more than 18 thousand cases and more than 600 deaths due to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) till April 20, 2020. Previous studies on various viral infections like influenza have supported an epidemiological...

IntroductionFollowing the USA, India ranks the second position in the world for COVID-19 cases with the highest number of daily confirmed cases since September 2020. The peak of COVID-19 cases is the most warranted feature for understanding the curvature of COVID-19 cases. AimThis study aims to analyse the growth rates of the daily confirmed cases and to provide an expected count of the peak of daily confirmed cases. DataWe retrieved data from an Application Programming Interface portal https:...

ObjectiveIn absence of any vaccine, the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is being contained through a non-pharmaceutical measure termed Social Distancing (SD). However, whether SD alone is enough to flatten the epidemic curve is debatable. Using a Stochastic Computational Simulation Model, we investigated the impact of increasing SD, hospital beds and COVID-19 detection rates in preventing COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Research Design and MethodsThe Stochastic Simulation Model was...

BackgroundThe Government, Health System and even an individual citizen of India is alarmed expecting the height of pandemic of SARS-COVID-19 in near future. Many experts worldwide predict it to happen in India between end of May and end of July. ObjectivesThe aim of this research was to find an answer that whether India would come across the looming conditions of SARS-COVID-19 in coming days given the prevailing circumstances so far. MethodsThe proposed approach used fundamental concept of Sta...

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has currently ravaged through the world, resulting in over three million confirmed cases and over two hundred thousand deaths, a complete change in daily life as we know it, worldwide lock-downs, travel restrictions, as well as heightened hygiene measures and physical distancing. Being able to analyse and predict the spread of this epidemic-causing disease is hence of utmost importance now, especially as it would help in the reasoning behind important deci...

The entire world is now eventually locked down due to the outbreak of nCOVID-19 corona virus outbreak. The fast and relentless spread nCOVID-19 has basically segmented the populace only into merely into three classes, such as susceptible, infected and recovered compartments. Adapting the classical SEIR-type epidemic modelling framework, the direct person-to-person contact transmission is taken as the direct route of transmission of nCOVID-19 pandemic. In this research, the authors have developed...

The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed health disparities throughout the United States, particularly among racial and ethnic minorities. As a result, there is a need for data-driven approaches to pinpoint the unique constellation of clinical and social determinants of health (SDOH) risk factors that give rise to poor patient outcomes following infection in US communities. We combined county-level COVID-19 testing data, COVID-19 vaccination rates, and SDOH information in Tennessee. Betwe...

Projecting the COVID-19 curve parameters such as ending-lifecycle and cumulative cases are helpful in guiding the policy makers to mitigate the outbreak. However, overestimating these parameters may put the public and policy makers in a muddle. In this paper, an optimistic scenario is simulated, wherein the dynamics of the COVID-19 curve is allowed to spread to such an extent that the projections of the COVID-19 parameters do not take excessively high values. Based on this scenario, the ending l...

The outbreak of COVID-19 in different parts of the world is a major concern for all the administrative units of respective countries. India is also facing this very tough task for controlling the virus outbreak and has managed its growth rate through some strict measures. This study presents the current situation of coronavirus spread in India along with the impact of various measures taken for it. With the help of data sources (till 7th-8th April 2020) from various state units of India and Mini...

COVID-19 pandemic is an enigma with uncertainty caused by biological and health systems factors. Although many models have been developed all around the world, transparent models that allow interacting with the assumptions will become more important as we test various strategies for lockdown, testing and social interventions and enable effective policy decisions. In this paper we developed a suite of models to guide development of policies under different scenarios when the lockdown opens. These...

BackgroundCOVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease which has been declared a Pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th March 2020. The Indian public health care system is already overstretched, and this pandemic is making things even worse. That is why forecasting cases for India is necessary to meet the future demands of the health infrastructure caused due to COVID-19. ObjectiveOur study forecasts the confirmed and active cases for COVID-19 until July mid, using time series Au...

The cumulative records of COVID-19 are rapidly increasing day by day in India. The key question prevailing in minds of all is when will it get over? There have been several attempts in literature to address this question using time series, Machine learning, epidemiological and statistical models. However due to high level of uncertainty in the domain and lack of big historical data, the performance of these models suffer. In this work, we present an intuitive model that uses a combination of epi...

On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed that atypical pneumonia-like cases have emerged in Wuhan City, Hubei province, China. WHO identified it as a novel coronavirus and declared a global pandemic on March 11th, 2020. At the time of writing this, the COVID-19 claimed more than 440 thousand lives worldwide and led to the global economy and social life into an abyss edge in the living memory. As of now, the confirmed cases in Bangladesh have surpassed 100 thousand a...

BackgroundCOVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease which has been declared a Pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11 2020. This pandemic has spread over the world in more than 200 countries. India is also adversely affected by this pandemic, and there are no signs of slowing down of the virus in coming time. The absence of a vaccine for COVID-19 is making the situation worse for the already overstretched Indian public health care system. As economic burden makes it increasi...

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWCOVID-19 is spreading really fast around the world. The current study describes the situation of the outbreak of this disease in India and predicts the number of cases expected to rise in India. The study also discusses the regional analysis of Indian states and presents the preparedness level of India in combating this outbreak. The study uses exploratory data analysis to report the current situation and uses time-series forecasting methods to predict the future trends. ...